FORECASTING OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE REPUBLIC OF BURYATIA
Piskunov E. Yu.
The article provides an empirical review of three methods of forecasting one-dimensional time series on the example of the dynamics of industrial production of the Republic of Buryatia. Step-by-step selection of model specifications based on information criteria and cross-validation procedure is performed. The choice of the best model is made on the basis of quality of the constructed forecasts on the postponed sample. The obtained forecasts are compared with the basic version of the forecast of the Ministry of economy of the Republic of Buryatia.